How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Ferro Carril Oeste, at 44.8%. The other outcomes represent 55.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.8% · Draw: 31.3% · Away win: 23.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ferro Carril Oeste 1656; Deportivo Madryn 1683. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Friday, Oct 2 2026
· 22:00
Ferro Carril Oeste
Elo 1656
0
-
2
Deportivo Madryn
Elo 1683
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-27
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Ferro Carril Oeste1656
Deportivo Madryn1683
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Ferro Carril Oeste
0Draws
0Deportivo Madryn
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
@ 2.21
Draw
31%
@ 2.90
Away
24%
@ 3.47
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.24
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.64
No
46%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
@ 2.95
Draw
54%
@ 1.86
Away
19%
@ 4.61
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.62
No
44%
HT Over 1.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Over 1.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.60
No
47%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 3.5 Goals
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.