How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is San Martin Tucuman, at 44.3%. The other outcomes represent 55.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.3% · Draw: 31.8% · Away win: 23.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: San Martin Tucuman 1615; Gimnasia Y Tiro 1638. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 21:30
San Martin Tucuman
Elo 1615
vs
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Elo 1638
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-23
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
San Martin Tucuman1615
Gimnasia Y Tiro1638
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0San Martin Tucuman
0Draws
2Gimnasia Y Tiro
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
Home
44%
Draw
32%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Away Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
48%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Over 1.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 3.5 Goals
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.