How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is San Telmo, at 37.0%. The other outcomes represent 63.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37% · Draw: 29% · Away win: 34%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: San Telmo 1510; Almirante Brown 1583. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:30
San Telmo
Elo 1510
vs
Almirante Brown
Elo 1583
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-73
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
San Telmo1510
Almirante Brown1583
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0San Telmo
2Draws
0Almirante Brown
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
Home
37%
Draw
29%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Away Clean Sheet
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
Home
28%
Draw
50%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Over 1.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 3.5 Goals
91% conf.
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.