How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tristan Suarez, at 50.5%. The other outcomes represent 49.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.5% · Draw: 30.2% · Away win: 19.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tristan Suarez 1706; Quilmes 1573. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Tristan Suarez
Elo 1706
0
-
0
Quilmes
Elo 1573
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+133
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Tristan Suarez1706
Quilmes1573
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Tristan Suarez
0Draws
0Quilmes
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
@ 2.18
Draw
30%
@ 2.66
Away
19%
@ 4.00
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
@ 1.91
No
49%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.20
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
@ 3.02
Draw
46%
@ 1.78
Away
20%
@ 5.01
HT Both Teams Score
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.67
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.65
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.