How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Defensores Unidos, at 43.8%. The other outcomes represent 56.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.8% · Draw: 29.4% · Away win: 26.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Defensores Unidos 1441; Argentino Quilmes 1452. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B Metropolitana · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Defensores Unidos
Elo 1441
1
-
1
Argentino Quilmes
Elo 1452
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-10
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Defensores Unidos1441
Argentino Quilmes1452
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Defensores Unidos
0Draws
2Argentino Quilmes
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
@ 2.33
Draw
29%
@ 2.74
Away
27%
@ 3.34
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 2.00
No
49%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.25
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.51
No
46%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 3.26
Draw
52%
@ 1.77
Away
19%
@ 4.43
HT Both Teams Score
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
HT Over 0.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
@ 1.68
No
42%
HT Over 1.5
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Over 1.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.71
No
48%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 3.5 Goals
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.