How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Pilar, at 41.0%. The other outcomes represent 59.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41% · Draw: 31.3% · Away win: 27.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Real Pilar 1552; Villa Dalmine 1556. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B Metropolitana · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Real Pilar
Elo 1552
2
-
0
Villa Dalmine
Elo 1556
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-4
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Real Pilar1552
Villa Dalmine1556
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Real Pilar
2Draws
0Villa Dalmine
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
@ 2.35
Draw
31%
@ 2.85
Away
28%
@ 3.10
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 2.20
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.28
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
@ 1.50
No
42%
Half-Time Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
@ 3.23
Draw
55%
@ 1.82
Away
16%
@ 4.03
HT Both Teams Score
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
HT Over 0.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.62
No
43%
HT Over 1.5
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Over 1.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.