How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is San Martín Burzaco, at 49.4%. The other outcomes represent 50.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.4% · Draw: 28.3% · Away win: 22.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: San Martín Burzaco 1466; Argentino de Merlo 1461. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B Metropolitana · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
San Martín Burzaco
Elo 1466
2
-
1
Argentino de Merlo
Elo 1461
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+5
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
San Martín Burzaco1466
Argentino de Merlo1461
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2San Martín Burzaco
0Draws
0Argentino de Merlo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
@ 1.65
Draw
28%
@ 3.33
Away
22%
@ 5.37
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.11
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
@ 2.34
Draw
49%
@ 1.95
Away
15%
@ 6.07
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.55
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Over 1.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.