How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is UAI Urquiza, at 61.1%. The other outcomes represent 38.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61.1% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 18%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: UAI Urquiza 1399; Ituzaingó 1325. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B Metropolitana · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:00
UAI Urquiza
Elo 1399
3
-
2
Ituzaingó
Elo 1325
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+75
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
UAI Urquiza1399
Ituzaingó1325
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0UAI Urquiza
2Draws
0Ituzaingó
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
61%
Draw
21%
Away
18%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
49%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.