How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Arsenal Sarandi, at 42.6%. The other outcomes represent 57.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.2% · Draw: 31.2% · Away win: 42.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Villa San Carlos 1487; Arsenal Sarandi 1609. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B Metropolitana · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Villa San Carlos
Elo 1487
1
-
0
Arsenal Sarandi
Elo 1609
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-122
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Villa San Carlos1487
Arsenal Sarandi1609
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Villa San Carlos
2Draws
0Arsenal Sarandi
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
@ 4.58
Draw
31%
@ 3.26
Away
43%
@ 1.75
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.91
No
42%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.13
No
25%
Half-Time Result
55% conf.
CORRECT
Home
17%
@ 5.28
Draw
55%
@ 1.98
Away
28%
@ 2.45
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.50
No
43%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
@ 1.43
No
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 3.5 Goals
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.