How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lugano, at 45.0%. The other outcomes represent 55.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45% · Draw: 24.8% · Away win: 30.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lugano 1374; Argentino Rosario 1322. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera C · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:00
Lugano
Elo 1374
vs
Argentino Rosario
Elo 1322
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
+52
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Lugano1374
Argentino Rosario1322
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Lugano
0Draws
2Argentino Rosario
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
Home
30%
Draw
47%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.