How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Puerto Nuevo, at 37.1%. The other outcomes represent 62.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.1% · Draw: 30.2% · Away win: 32.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Puerto Nuevo 1319; JJ Urquiza 1325. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera C · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:00
Puerto Nuevo
Elo 1319
vs
JJ Urquiza
Elo 1325
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-6
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Puerto Nuevo1319
JJ Urquiza1325
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Puerto Nuevo
0Draws
0JJ Urquiza
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
Home
37%
Draw
30%
Away
33%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
24%
Draw
48%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
87% conf.
Yes
13%
No
87%
HT Over 0.5
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
HT Over 1.5
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Over 1.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 3.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.