How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Floresta, at 40.6%. The other outcomes represent 59.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.6% · Draw: 29.1% · Away win: 30.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Floresta 1666; Botafogo PB 1717. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie C · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 20:00
Floresta
Elo 1666
1
-
1
Botafogo PB
Elo 1717
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-51
H2H (6)
6H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Floresta1666
Botafogo PB1717
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
6Floresta
0Draws
0Botafogo PB
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
41%
Draw
29%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
49%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.