How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Santa Cruz, at 50.2%. The other outcomes represent 49.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.2% · Draw: 28% · Away win: 21.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Santa Cruz 1725; Maringá 1741. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie C · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 20:00
Santa Cruz
Elo 1725
1
-
1
Maringá
Elo 1741
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-17
H2H (6)
4H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Santa Cruz1725
Maringá1741
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Santa Cruz
2Draws
0Maringá
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
28%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
44%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.