How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Patriotas, at 40.0%. The other outcomes represent 60.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40% · Draw: 28.6% · Away win: 31.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Patriotas 1413; Ind. Yumbo 1459. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 20:30
Patriotas
Elo 1413
0
-
1
Ind. Yumbo
Elo 1459
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
-46
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Patriotas1413
Ind. Yumbo1459
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Patriotas
0Draws
2Ind. Yumbo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
Draw
29%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
Draw
48%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.