How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Ferroviária, at 39.3%. The other outcomes represent 60.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.4% · Draw: 24.3% · Away win: 39.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Paysandu 1674; Ferroviária 1733. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie C · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 22:30
Paysandu
Elo 1674
1
-
0
Ferroviária
Elo 1733
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-59
H2H (8)
0H
0D
8A
Elo rating comparison
Paysandu1674
Ferroviária1733
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Paysandu
0Draws
8Ferroviária
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
24%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
Draw
43%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.