How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lexington, at 46.8%. The other outcomes represent 53.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46.8% · Draw: 27.4% · Away win: 25.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lexington 1612; El Paso Locomotive 1630. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
USL Championship · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 23:00
Lexington
Elo 1612
3
-
1
El Paso Locomotive
Elo 1630
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-18
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Lexington1612
El Paso Locomotive1630
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Lexington
0Draws
0El Paso Locomotive
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
@ 1.99
Draw
27%
@ 3.65
Away
26%
@ 3.15
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.58
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.29
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.71
No
44%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
@ 2.56
Draw
46%
@ 2.31
Away
22%
@ 3.70
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.30
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.20
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.68
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.