How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Independiente de La Chorrera, at 37.9%. The other outcomes represent 62.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.9% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 34.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente de La Chorrera 1561; CD Arabe Unido 1616. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 23:15
Independiente de La Chorrera
Elo 1561
1
-
1
CD Arabe Unido
Elo 1616
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-54
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente de La Chorrera1561
CD Arabe Unido1616
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Independiente de La Chorrera
0Draws
2CD Arabe Unido
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
Draw
28%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
45%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.