How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Monarcas, at 65.1%. The other outcomes represent 34.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.1% · Draw: 18.7% · Away win: 16.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Monarcas 1575; Tlaxcala 1398. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 01:00
Monarcas
Elo 1575
vs
Tlaxcala
Elo 1398
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+177
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Monarcas1575
Tlaxcala1398
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Monarcas
2Draws
0Tlaxcala
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
Home
65%
Draw
19%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
48%
Draw
36%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.