How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Piratas, at 68.5%. The other outcomes represent 31.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 68.5% · Draw: 16.7% · Away win: 14.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Piratas 1521; Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1362. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 01:00
Piratas
Elo 1521
vs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Elo 1362
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+159
Elo rating comparison
Piratas1521
Alebrijes de Oaxaca1362
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Piratas
—Draws
—Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
68% conf.
Home
68%
Draw
17%
Away
15%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Half-Time Result
58% conf.
Home
58%
Draw
27%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.