How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alianza, at 38.4%. The other outcomes represent 61.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.4% · Draw: 23.5% · Away win: 38.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alianza 1653; Firpo 1745. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 01:00
Alianza
Elo 1653
vs
Firpo
Elo 1745
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-92
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Alianza1653
Firpo1745
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Alianza
0Draws
1Firpo
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
Home
38%
Draw
24%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
27%
Draw
40%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.