How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Independiente Medellin, at 44.9%. The other outcomes represent 55.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.9% · Draw: 26.5% · Away win: 28.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente Medellin 1717; Santa Fe 1751. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 01:15
Independiente Medellin
Elo 1717
vs
Santa Fe
Elo 1751
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-33
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente Medellin1717
Santa Fe1751
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Independiente Medellin
0Draws
2Santa Fe
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
Home
45%
Draw
27%
Away
29%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
Home
34%
Draw
46%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.