How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Orange County SC, at 46.3%. The other outcomes represent 53.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46.3% · Draw: 29.6% · Away win: 24.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Orange County SC 1511; Monterey Bay 1381. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
USL Championship · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 02:00
Orange County SC
Elo 1511
vs
Monterey Bay
Elo 1381
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+130
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Orange County SC1511
Monterey Bay1381
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Orange County SC
0Draws
0Monterey Bay
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
Home
46%
Draw
30%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
40%
Draw
40%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.