How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is USA, at 40.3%. The other outcomes represent 59.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.3% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 36.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: USA 1722; Mexico 1803. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 02:00
USA
Elo 1722
vs
Mexico
Elo 1803
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-81
Elo rating comparison
USA1722
Mexico1803
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—USA
—Draws
—Mexico
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
Home
40%
Draw
24%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
37%
Draw
40%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.