How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Ural II, at 47.7%. The other outcomes represent 52.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.7% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 27.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ural II 1300; Nosta 1310. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League - Group 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 08:00
Ural II
Elo 1300
vs
Nosta
Elo 1310
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-10
H2H (10)
6H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Ural II1300
Nosta1310
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
6Ural II
0Draws
4Nosta
10 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
Home
48%
Draw
25%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
34%
Draw
44%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.