How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cartagena LU II, at 71.3%. The other outcomes represent 28.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 71.3% · Draw: 16.9% · Away win: 11.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cartagena LU II 1448; Algar 1287. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 09:00
Cartagena LU II
Elo 1448
1
-
2
Algar
Elo 1287
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+161
Elo rating comparison
Cartagena LU II1448
Algar1287
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Cartagena LU II
—Draws
—Algar
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
WRONG
Home
71%
Draw
17%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
37%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.