How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Davao Aguilas, at 72.8%. The other outcomes represent 27.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 72.8% · Draw: 15.2% · Away win: 12%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Davao Aguilas 1617; Tuloy 1321. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
PFL · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 09:45
Davao Aguilas
Elo 1617
2
-
1
Tuloy
Elo 1321
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+296
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Davao Aguilas1617
Tuloy1321
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Davao Aguilas
0Draws
0Tuloy
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
73%
Draw
15%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
Draw
34%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.