How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Nacka Iliria, at 40.8%. The other outcomes represent 59.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.8% · Draw: 23.7% · Away win: 35.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nacka Iliria 1470; Karlslund 1450. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–4. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 10:00
Nacka Iliria
Elo 1470
1
-
4
Karlslund
Elo 1450
FT
HT 1-4
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+20
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Nacka Iliria1470
Karlslund1450
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Nacka Iliria
0Draws
2Karlslund
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
41%
Draw
24%
Away
35%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
40%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.