How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, at 58.6%. The other outcomes represent 41.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.6% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 16.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1530; Krylya Sovetov II 1385. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League - Group 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 11:00
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Elo 1530
1
-
2
Krylya Sovetov II
Elo 1385
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+145
H2H (9)
5H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod1530
Krylya Sovetov II1385
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
5Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
4Draws
0Krylya Sovetov II
9 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
59%
Draw
25%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
40%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.