How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Kaizer Chiefs U23, at 40.0%. The other outcomes represent 60.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40% · Draw: 21.8% · Away win: 38.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kaizer Chiefs U23 1708; Mamelodi Sundowns U23 1784. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Diski Challenge · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 10:00
Kaizer Chiefs U23
Elo 1708
4
-
2
Mamelodi Sundowns U23
Elo 1784
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-76
H2H (5)
1H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Kaizer Chiefs U231708
Mamelodi Sundowns U231784
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Kaizer Chiefs U23
0Draws
4Mamelodi Sundowns U23
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
Draw
22%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
40%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.