How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Arlanda, at 40.0%. The other outcomes represent 60.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39% · Draw: 21% · Away win: 40%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vasalund 1673; Arlanda 1779. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ettan - Norra · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 11:00
Vasalund
Elo 1673
1
-
4
Arlanda
Elo 1779
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-105
H2H (3)
1H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Vasalund1673
Arlanda1779
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Vasalund
0Draws
2Arlanda
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
@ 2.36
Draw
21%
@ 3.68
Away
40%
@ 2.49
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.47
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.42
No
47%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.49
No
37%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 2.90
Draw
43%
@ 2.36
Away
30%
@ 3.03
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.25
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.15
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.53
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.