How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Borussia Dortmund II, at 40.8%. The other outcomes represent 59.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.6% · Draw: 18.6% · Away win: 40.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sportfreunde Siegen 1825; Borussia Dortmund II 1844. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Regionalliga - West · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 12:00
Sportfreunde Siegen
Elo 1825
1
-
3
Borussia Dortmund II
Elo 1844
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-19
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Sportfreunde Siegen1825
Borussia Dortmund II1844
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sportfreunde Siegen
0Draws
2Borussia Dortmund II
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
Draw
19%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
38%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.