How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Roda, at 40.4%. The other outcomes represent 59.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.6% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 40.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: VVV Venlo 1539; Roda 1597. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 12:30
VVV Venlo
Elo 1539
2
-
0
Roda
Elo 1597
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-57
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
VVV Venlo1539
Roda1597
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0VVV Venlo
1Draws
0Roda
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
@ 2.38
Draw
21%
@ 3.68
Away
40%
@ 2.59
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
@ 1.46
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.47
No
47%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
@ 1.53
No
32%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
@ 2.84
Draw
38%
@ 2.39
Away
31%
@ 3.06
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
@ 1.24
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
@ 1.14
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
@ 1.52
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.