How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is GOES, at 48.9%. The other outcomes represent 51.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.9% · Draw: 22.6% · Away win: 28.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: GOES 1414; UDI '19 1401. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–4. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Derde Divisie · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 12:30
GOES
Elo 1414
0
-
4
UDI '19
Elo 1401
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+13
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
GOES1414
UDI '191401
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2GOES
0Draws
0UDI '19
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
Draw
23%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
No
31%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
Draw
35%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.