How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chertanovo Moscow, at 58.9%. The other outcomes represent 41.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 23.8% · Draw: 17.4% · Away win: 58.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Yenisey II 1279; Chertanovo Moscow 1622. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League - Group 2 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 09:00
Yenisey II
Elo 1279
2
-
1
Chertanovo Moscow
Elo 1622
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-343
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Yenisey II1279
Chertanovo Moscow1622
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Yenisey II
0Draws
2Chertanovo Moscow
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
17%
Away
59%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Home Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
20%
Draw
41%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.