How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chełmianka Chełm, at 50.0%. The other outcomes represent 50.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 28.8% · Draw: 21.3% · Away win: 50%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Hetman Zamosc 1305; Chełmianka Chełm 1728. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Hetman Zamosc
Elo 1305
2
-
2
Chełmianka Chełm
Elo 1728
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-424
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Hetman Zamosc1305
Chełmianka Chełm1728
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Hetman Zamosc
0Draws
2Chełmianka Chełm
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
21%
Away
50%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
Draw
37%
Away
40%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.