How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Millesimo, at 38.0%. The other outcomes represent 62.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.9% · Draw: 25% · Away win: 38%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Asti 1475; Millesimo 1513. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone A · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Asti
Elo 1475
2
-
0
Millesimo
Elo 1513
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-38
Elo rating comparison
Asti1475
Millesimo1513
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Asti
—Draws
—Millesimo
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
25%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
Draw
41%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.