How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chievo, at 68.1%. The other outcomes represent 31.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 68.1% · Draw: 18.4% · Away win: 13.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chievo 1585; Tritium 1323. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–0. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone B · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:45
Chievo
Elo 1585
5
-
0
Tritium
Elo 1323
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+263
Elo rating comparison
Chievo1585
Tritium1323
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Chievo
—Draws
—Tritium
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
68% conf.
CORRECT
Home
68%
Draw
18%
Away
13%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
53%
Draw
34%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.