How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rovato Vertovese, at 44.7%. The other outcomes represent 55.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.7% · Draw: 24.2% · Away win: 31.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rovato Vertovese 1522; Real Calepina 1494. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone B · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Rovato Vertovese
Elo 1522
0
-
1
Real Calepina
Elo 1494
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
4D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+29
Elo rating comparison
Rovato Vertovese1522
Real Calepina1494
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Rovato Vertovese
—Draws
—Real Calepina
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
24%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
36%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.