How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Pro Sesto, at 66.7%. The other outcomes represent 33.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18.6% · Draw: 14.7% · Away win: 66.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Arconatese 1377; Pro Sesto 1592. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone D · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Arconatese
Elo 1377
1
-
1
Pro Sesto
Elo 1592
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-215
Elo rating comparison
Arconatese1377
Pro Sesto1592
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Arconatese
—Draws
—Pro Sesto
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
67% conf.
WRONG
Home
19%
Draw
15%
Away
67%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Half-Time Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
14%
Draw
25%
Away
61%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.