How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lucchese, at 41.4%. The other outcomes represent 58.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.5% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 41.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Grassina 1517; Lucchese 1566. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–6. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone E · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Grassina
Elo 1517
3
-
6
Lucchese
Elo 1566
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-49
Elo rating comparison
Grassina1517
Lucchese1566
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Grassina
—Draws
—Lucchese
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
25%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
35%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.