How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rondinella, at 51.3%. The other outcomes represent 48.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 51.3% · Draw: 19.3% · Away win: 29.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rondinella 1460; Progresso 1440. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone E · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Rondinella
Elo 1460
2
-
1
Progresso
Elo 1440
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+20
Elo rating comparison
Rondinella1460
Progresso1440
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Rondinella
—Draws
—Progresso
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
Draw
19%
Away
29%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
39%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.