How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is San Donato Tavarnelle, at 57.8%. The other outcomes represent 42.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 57.8% · Draw: 26% · Away win: 16.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: San Donato Tavarnelle 1477; Mezzolara 1362. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone E · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
San Donato Tavarnelle
Elo 1477
1
-
1
Mezzolara
Elo 1362
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
+115
Elo rating comparison
San Donato Tavarnelle1477
Mezzolara1362
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—San Donato Tavarnelle
—Draws
—Mezzolara
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
58%
Draw
26%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
48%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.