How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Martina Franca, at 65.2%. The other outcomes represent 34.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.2% · Draw: 20.1% · Away win: 14.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Martina Franca 1627; Francavilla 1473. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone H · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:30
Martina Franca
Elo 1627
1
-
0
Francavilla
Elo 1473
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+155
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Martina Franca1627
Francavilla1473
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Martina Franca
0Draws
0Francavilla
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
CORRECT
Home
65%
Draw
20%
Away
15%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
Draw
41%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.