How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is USD Palmese, at 37.9%. The other outcomes represent 62.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.9% · Draw: 25.8% · Away win: 36.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: USD Palmese 1437; Nardò 1523. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone H · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
USD Palmese
Elo 1437
4
-
2
Nardò
Elo 1523
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-86
Elo rating comparison
USD Palmese1437
Nardò1523
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—USD Palmese
—Draws
—Nardò
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
Draw
26%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
40%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.