How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atletico Ascoli, at 58.4%. The other outcomes represent 41.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.4% · Draw: 19.8% · Away win: 21.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Ascoli 1557; Fossombrone 1445. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone F · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Atletico Ascoli
Elo 1557
0
-
1
Fossombrone
Elo 1445
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+112
H2H (5)
0H
5D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Ascoli1557
Fossombrone1445
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Atletico Ascoli
5Draws
0Fossombrone
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
58%
Draw
20%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
36%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.