How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Montecchio Gallo, at 45.9%. The other outcomes represent 54.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.9% · Draw: 26.5% · Away win: 27.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Montecchio Gallo 1507; Notaresco 1517. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone F · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Montecchio Gallo
Elo 1507
0
-
1
Notaresco
Elo 1517
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-10
Elo rating comparison
Montecchio Gallo1507
Notaresco1517
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Montecchio Gallo
—Draws
—Notaresco
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
Draw
27%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
Draw
40%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.