How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is L'Aquila, at 53.3%. The other outcomes represent 46.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 23% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 53.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Pietralunga 1460; L'Aquila 1579. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone F · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Pietralunga
Elo 1460
0
-
3
L'Aquila
Elo 1579
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-119
Elo rating comparison
Pietralunga1460
L'Aquila1579
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Pietralunga
—Draws
—L'Aquila
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
Draw
24%
Away
53%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
Draw
36%
Away
42%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.