How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Certosa V. Campagnano, at 53.7%. The other outcomes represent 46.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.7% · Draw: 26.9% · Away win: 19.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Certosa V. Campagnano 1528; Aranova 1493. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone G · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Certosa V. Campagnano
Elo 1528
2
-
1
Aranova
Elo 1493
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
+35
Elo rating comparison
Certosa V. Campagnano1528
Aranova1493
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Certosa V. Campagnano
—Draws
—Aranova
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
27%
Away
19%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
Draw
46%
Away
19%
HT Both Teams Score
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.