How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Gelbison, at 73.2%. The other outcomes represent 26.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 73.2% · Draw: 15.9% · Away win: 10.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Gelbison 1601; Venafro 1449. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone G · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Gelbison
Elo 1601
0
-
1
Venafro
Elo 1449
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+152
Elo rating comparison
Gelbison1601
Venafro1449
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Gelbison
—Draws
—Venafro
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
WRONG
Home
73%
Draw
16%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
WRONG
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
WRONG
Home
57%
Draw
30%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.