How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sarnese, at 44.5%. The other outcomes represent 55.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.5% · Draw: 23% · Away win: 32.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sarnese 1557; Paganese 1575. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie D - Girone G · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:30
Sarnese
Elo 1557
2
-
1
Paganese
Elo 1575
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-18
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sarnese1557
Paganese1575
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sarnese
1Draws
0Paganese
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
23%
Away
33%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
Draw
41%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.